Chính sách tài khóa và Rủi ro khí hậu trong Kỷ nguyên phát triển bền vững: Tổng quan lý thuyết và hướng nghiên cứu tiềm năng

Các tác giả

  • Nguyễn Quang Bình Khoa Tài chính Công - Trường Kinh tế, Luật và Quản lý Nhà nước, Đại học Kinh tế Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33301/JED.VI.2515

Từ khóa:

Chính sách tài khóa, Phát triển bền vững, Rủi ro khí hậu

Tóm tắt

Bài nghiên cứu này nhằm mục đích tổng quan lý thuyết và phân tích mối quan hệ giữa rủi ro khí hậu và chính sách tài khóa trong bối cảnh phát triển bền vững, thông qua việc hệ thống hóa các lý thuyết nền, khái niệm liên quan và bằng chứng thực nghiệm hiện có. Cụ thể, bài viết phân tích tác động của rủi ro khí hậu đến chính sách tài khóa và phát triển bền vững, đồng thời làm rõ vai trò điều tiết của chính sách tài khóa trong việc giảm thiểu rủi ro, thích ứng và phục hồi khi đối diện với rủi ro khí hậu. Từ đó, nghiên cứu đề xuất ba hướng tiếp cận chính: (1) Phân tích tác động của rủi ro khí hậu đến chính sách tài khóa và phát triển bền vững; (2) Làm rõ vai trò của chính sách tài khóa trong việc ứng phó với rủi ro khí hậu; và (3) Khám phá mối quan hệ ba chiều giữa chính sách tài khóa – rủi ro khí hậu – phát triển bền vững.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Mohaddes, K., Volz, U., & Zenghelis, D. (2021). Climate change and fiscal sustainability: Risks and opportunities. National Institute Economic Review, 258, 28-46.

Atamuratova, S. B., Clarke, D. J., Mahul, O., Signer, B. L., White, E. J., & Yi, H. J. (2015). Financial protection against natural disasters: From products to comprehensive strategies—An operational framework for disaster risk financing and insurance. World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/523011468129274796

Banzhaf, H. S., & Chupp, B. A. (2012). Fiscal federalism and interjurisdictional externalities: New results and an application to U.S. air pollution. Journal of Public Economics, 96(5), 449–464. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2012.01.001

Barbier, E. B. (2010). Poverty, development, and environment. Environment and Development Economics, 15(6), 635-660. doi: 10.1017/S1355770X1000032X

Barrage, L. (2025). Climate Change Impacts on Public Finances Around the World. doi: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-011624-035902

Bashir, M. F., Ma, B., Bilal, Komal, B., & Bashir, M. A. (2021). Analysis of environmental taxes publications: a bibliometric and systematic literature review. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(16), 20700-20716. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-12123-x

Batten, S. (2018). Climate change and the macro-economy: A critical review (Bank of England Working Paper No. 706). Bank of England. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3104554

Bernheim, B. D., & Taubinsky, D. (2018). Behavioral public economics. In B. D. Bernheim, S. DellaVigna, & D. Laibson (Eds.), Handbook of behavioral economics: Applications and foundations 1 (Vol. 1, pp. 381–516). North-Holland.

Bird, R. M., & Smart, M. (2002). Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers: International Lessons for Developing Countries. World Development, 30(6), 899-912. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00016-5

Buhr, B., Volz, U., Donovan, C., Kling, G., Lo, Y. C., Murinde, V., & Pullin, N. (2018). Climate Change and the Cost of Capital in Developing Countries. Retrieved from https://soas-repository.worktribe.com/output/381483/climate-change-and-the-cost-of-capital-in-developing-countries

Cavallo, E., & Noy, I. (2011). Natural Disasters and the Economy — A Survey. International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 5(1), 63-102. doi: 10.1561/101.00000039

Cevik, S., & Jalles, J. T. (2022). This changes everything: Climate shocks and sovereign bonds. Energy Economics, 107, 105856. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105856

Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Fader, M., Garrabou, J., Gattuso, J.-P., Iglesias, A., … Paz, S. (2018). Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean. Nature Climate Change, 8(11), 972–980. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2

Dabla-Norris, E., Daniel, J., Nozaki, M., Alonso, C., Balasundharam, V., Bellon, M., … Kilpatrick, J. (2021). Fiscal policies to address climate change in Asia and the Pacific: Opportunities and challenges. International Monetary Fund.

Đặng Thị Bạch Vân, Bùi Duy Tùng, & Nguyễn Quang Bình. (2019). Phân cấp tài khóa và Tăng trưởng kinh tế: Tổng hợp lý thuyết và đề xuất hướng nghiên cứu tiềm năng. Tạp chí nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Kinh doanh Châu Á, 30(10), 05-26.

de Mello, L., & Ter-Minassian, T. (2023). Decarbonisation and intergovernmental fiscal relations: Policy challenges and reform options. OECD Working Papers on Fiscal Federalism, 43. doi: https://doi.org/10.1787/c434c385-en

Delgado, R., Eguino, H., & Pereira, A. L. (2021). Fiscal policy and climate change: Recent experiences of finance ministries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank.

Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2012). Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3), 66–95. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.3.66

Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Burke, M. (2019). Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(20), 9808-9813. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1816020116

Dinh, L. Q., Oanh, T. T. K., & Ha, N. T. H. (2025). Financial stability and sustainable development: Perspectives from fiscal and monetary policy. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 30(2), 1724–1741. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2981

Donthu, N., Kumar, S., Mukherjee, D., Pandey, N., & Lim, W. M. (2021). How to conduct a bibliometric analysis: An overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 133, 285-296. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.070

Eka Hendra, P., Dudi, R., Noor, S., Irwan, D., Joko Tri, H., Zenitha Astra, P., … Gerry Pramudya, S. (2019). Public finance for climate change in Indonesia 2016–2018. Green Policy Platform. https://www.greenpolicyplatform.org/research/indonesia%E2%80%99s-climate-change-public-finance-2016-2018

Faguet, J.-P. (2014). Decentralization and Governance. World Development, 53, 2-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.01.002

Felbermayr, G. J., Gröschl, J., Sanders, M., Schippers, V., & Steinwachs, T. (2018). Shedding light on the spatial diffusion of disasters. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 7146. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3237340

Flammer, C. (2021). Corporate green bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 499-516. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.01.010

Fomby, T., Ikeda, Y., & Loayza, N. V. (2013). The growth aftermath of natural disasters. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28(3), 412–434. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2329

Forni, L., Catalano, M., & Pezzolla, E. (2018). Increasing resilience: Fiscal policy for climate adaptation. In L. Forni (Ed.), Fiscal policies for development and climate action (pp. 115–133). World Bank Group. doi: https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1358-0_ch3

Gao, P., Rong, Y., Cao, Y., Zhang, Q., & Sun, H. (2024). Regional climate risks and government education expenditure: Evidence from China. Frontiers in Energy Research, 12, 1374065. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2024.1374065

Grieder, M., Baerenbold, R., Schmitz, J., & Schubert, R. (2021). The behavioral effects of carbon taxes: Experimental evidence. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3628516

Guillemette, Y., & Château, J. (2023). Long-term scenarios: Incorporating the energy transition (OECD Economic Policy Papers No. 33). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/153ab87c-en

Hallegatte, S., Maruyama Rentschler, J. E., & Rozenberg, J. (2020). The adaptation principles: A guide for designing strategies for climate change adaptation and resilience. World Bank Group. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/546611605298449211/pdf/The-Adaptation-Principles-A-Guide-for-Designing-Strategies-for-Climate-Change-Adaptation-and-Resilience.pdf

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M., & Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9

Hsiang, S. M., & Jina, A. S. (2014). The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: Evidence from 6,700 cyclones (NBER Working Paper No. 20352). National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: https://doi.org/10.3386/w20352

International Monetary Fund. (2016). Small states’ resilience to natural disasters and climate change: Role for the IMF. International Monetary Fund.

International Monetary Fund. (2019). Fiscal policies for Paris climate strategies: From principle to practice. International Monetary Fund.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023a). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis (Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report). Cambridge University Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023b). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report). Cambridge University Press.

Jakob, M., Chen, C., Fuss, S., Marxen, A., Rao, N., & Edenhofer, O. (2016). Using carbon pricing revenues to finance infrastructure access. Global Landscapes Forum. doi: https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.230602

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023c). Climate change 2023: Synthesis report (Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report). IPCC. doi: https://doi.org/10.59327/ipcc/ar6-9789291691647

Kling, G., Volz, U., Murinde, V., & Ayas, S. (2021). The impact of climate vulnerability on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance. World Development, 137, 105131. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105131

Larson, A. M., & Soto, F. (2008). Decentralization of natural resource governance regimes. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 33, 213–239. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.environ.33.020607.095522

Li, C., Lishuo, P., & He, J. (2025). Climate Resilience Assessment of Chinese Cities and The Enhancement Effect of Fiscal Expenditure. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 61(9), 2643-2657. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2025.2459750

Lund, S., Manyika, J., Dc, W., & Woetzel, J. (2020). Risk, resilience, and rebalancing in global value chains. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/risk-resilience-and-rebalancing-in-global-value-chains

Mach, K. J., Kraan, C. M., Adger, W. N., Buhaug, H., Burke, M., Fearon, J. D., … von Uexkull, N. (2019). Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature, 571(7764), 193–197. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6

Mao, G., Liu, X., Du, H., Zuo, J., & Wang, L. (2015). Way forward for alternative energy research: A bibliometric analysis during 1994–2013. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 48, 276-286. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.03.094

McDonnell, S. (2023). The COP27 decision and future directions for loss and damage finance: Addressing vulnerability and non-economic loss and damage. Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law, 32(3), 416–427. https://doi.org/10.1111/reel.12521

McNamara, K. E., & Jackson, G. (2019). Loss and damage: A review of the literature and directions for future research. WIREs Climate Change, 10(2), e564. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.564

Mejia, M. S. A. (2016). Gone with the wind: Estimating hurricane and climate change costs in the Caribbean. International Monetary Fund.

Mullan, M., & Ranger, N. (2022). Climate-resilient finance and investment: Framing paper. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/climate-resilient-finance-and-investment_223ad3b9-en.html

Noy, I., & Nualsri, A. (2011). Fiscal storms: Public spending and revenues in the aftermath of natural disasters. Environment and Development Economics, 16(1), 113–128. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X10000413

Oates, W. E. (1972). Fiscal federalism. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2019). Taxing energy use 2019: Using taxes for climate action. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/058ca239-en

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021a). Effective carbon rates 2021: Pricing carbon emissions through taxes and emissions trading. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/0e8e24f5-en

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021b). Strengthening climate resilience: Guidance for governments and development co-operation. OECD Publishing.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021c). Tax policy and climate change: IMF/OECD report for the G20. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9ab5574d-en

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2024a). Climate adaptation investment framework. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/8686fc27-en

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2024b). Infrastructure for a climate-resilient future. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/a74a45b0-en

Painter, M. (2020). An inconvenient cost: The effects of climate change on municipal bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 135(2), 468–482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.06.006

Pecl, G. T., Araújo, M. B., Bell, J. D., Blanchard, J., Bonebrake, T. C., Chen, I.-C., … Williams, S. E. (2017). Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science, 355(6332), eaai9214. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aai9214

Pigato, M. (2019). Fiscal policies for development and climate action. World Bank Group.

Pigou, A. C. (2017). The economics of welfare (1st ed.). Routledge.

Qian, Y., & Weingast, B. R. (1997). Federalism as a Commitment to Reserving Market Incentives. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4), 83-92. doi:10.1257/jep.11.4.83

Resosudarmo, B. P., & Abdurohman. (2013). Green fiscal policy strategies in response to climate change in Indonesia. In A. Mori, P. Ekins, S. Lee, S. Speck, & K. Ueta (Eds.), The Green fiscal mechanism and reform for low carbon development: East Asia and Europe (pp. 240–258). Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315882321

Sanoh, A. (2015). Rainfall Shocks, Local Revenues, and Intergovernmental Transfer in Mali. World Development, 66, 359-370. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.08.022

Tol, R. S. J. (2009). The Economic Effects of Climate Change. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(2), 29-51. doi: 10.1257/jep.23.2.29

UNEPFI. (2022). Adapting to a new climate. United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative. https://www.unepfi.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Adapting-to-a-New-Climate.pdf

Weber, M., & Chaiechi, T. (2022). Fiscal implications: Inclusive growth and climate change resilience—A scoping study of existing policy in selected ASEAN countries. In T. Chaiechi & J. Wood (Eds.), Community empowerment, sustainable cities, and transformative economies (pp. 587–604). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2229-4_28

Weingast, B. R. (2009). Second generation fiscal federalism: The implications of fiscal incentives. Journal of Urban Economics, 65(3), 279–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.12.005

World Bank. (2019). World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32437

World Bank Group. (2019). Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness. World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/high-level-commission-on-carbon-pricing

Tải xuống

Đã Xuất bản

30-01-2026

Cách trích dẫn

Nguyen Quang, B. (2026). Chính sách tài khóa và Rủi ro khí hậu trong Kỷ nguyên phát triển bền vững: Tổng quan lý thuyết và hướng nghiên cứu tiềm năng. Tạp Chí Kinh Tế Và Phát triển, 343, 33–47. https://doi.org/10.33301/JED.VI.2515